Pre-Conference Workshop | Tuesday June 18, 2019

8.30am – 4.30pm

Improving the Reliability of Well Production Forecasts

Dr. John Lee, Professor of Petroleum Engineering, Texas A&M University

This workshop will focus on best practices for avoiding over-estimation of shale reserves, with a focus on the Permian Basin. Recent reports on the long-term production rates of wells in the Permian Basin have raised questions about the viability of the fracturing boom in North America. Data shows that as production increases, the GOR is rising quicker than expected, leading to some wells being abandoned sooner
than expected. Production data shows that many forecasts for light oil wells in shale plays have been over-optimistic, although other wells are performing as expected. This workshop will offer analysis of recent reports, insight into the circumstances leading to over-estimation, techniques to improve reliability of estimates and more.



• Review reporting on overestimating, including analysis of Wood Mackenzie’s latest updates
• Understanding the geophysical and operational circumstances that lead to wells performing vs underperforming
• Identifying and differentiating between performing and underperforming wells
• Improving estimates using production data from recent wells
• Implementing organizational best practices to avoid over-estimation in future analysis
• Quantifying uncertainty in reserves estimates

Dr. John Lee is Professor of Petroleum Engineering at Texas A&M University. John holds BS, MS and PhD degrees in chemical engineering from the Georgia Institute of Technology. He worked for ExxonMobil early in his career and specialized in integrated reservoir studies.

He later joined the Petroleum Engineering faculty at Texas A&M, and became Regents Professor of Petroleum Engineering. While at A&M, he also served as a consultant with S.A. Holditch & Associates, where he specialized in reservoir engineering aspects of unconventional gas resources. He joined the University of Houston faculty in September 2011 and held the Cullen Distinguished University Chair until September 2015. He served as an Academic Engineering Fellow with the U.S. Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) in Washington during 2007-8, and was a principal architect of the modernized SEC rules for reporting oil and gas reserves. John is the author of four textbooks published by SPE and has received numerous awards from SPE, including the Lucas Medal, the DeGolyer Distinguished Service Medal and Honorary Membership. He is a member of the U.S. National Academy of Engineering and the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences.